Sustainable Living

ready to try a no-impact week?

Sustainable Living

Chanced upon the No Impact Week challenge on Huffington Post a few days ago. The idea is to live for a week with zero or reduced impact on the environment, based on the year-long experiment by Colin Beavan, known as No Impact Man:

HuffPost Green and HuffPost’s Eyes & Ears Citizen Journalism Initiative are thrilled to announce that we are partnering with the No Impact Project, a non-profit started by Colin Beavan, to bring our readers the first No Impact Week. This week will give people the opportunity to examine and reduce their ecological footprint by taking part in a short and intense period of conscious consumption supported by local and online communities.


As we learned more about Colin, and saw No Impact Man, the documentary film and read his book of the same title, about his family’s year-long experiment, we were downright inspired. The documentary follows the Beavans’ journey as they incrementally lowered their impact through phases, such as making no trash, only eating food grown within 250 miles, using no carbon producing transportation (not even the subway!) and finally, no electricity in their home. By year’s end their impact was down to nearly zero.

Primary takers so far are Americans and Europeans, but I really want to give myself an honest shot at it.

The global project starts this Monday, October 18.  Are you ready to try this for yourself? Take a look here or download the No Impact Week Guide here and let me know, so at least I’ll have a friend to dial when I’m ready to scream and pull out my hair from the birthing pains of this first step towards going green!

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Today, October 15, is Blog Action Day, and the theme for this year is Climate change. Visit www.blogactionday.org to see the green ruckus from all over the blogosphere today.

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Alternative to relief goods in plastic: binalot!

Sustainable Living

Plastic clogged the drains, relief goods in plastic will clog the drains even more.  The Acacia Waldorf school in Sta.Rosa, Laguna shows us an alternative: packing relief goods (food/meals in particular) using good old banana leaves…

Photo from Dale Diaz shows 500 meals of rice, tuyo and hardboiled egg in “green” packaging.

Other alternatives (taken from calls of help from We Philippines as reposted on facebook):  used (but still usable!) blankets, bedsheets, pillow cases, towels, curtains and tablecloths to pack goods with.

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Lifesaver bottle: using nanotechnology to make filthy water potable

Sustainable Living

First heard about this revolutionary invention that lets people drink filthy floodwater from my dad.  Was super excited to read about an initiative by The Clean Water Project to bring the Lifesaver bottle to the Philippines:

The Clean Water Project aims to transform the deadly floodwaters of Typhoon Ondoy (international name Ketsana) into life giving, pure drinking water.  It is a collaboration among old friends who are committed to doing whatever we can do, and work for as long as there is work to be done.

Inventor Michael Pritchard explains how this works:

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LIFESAVER bottle removes all micro-biological contamination from water.

LIFESAVER bottle has been thoroughly tested by London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine showing that even the smallest of viruses were removed. Download the LSHTM laboratory test results HERE.

The smallest bacteria measures 200NM (nanometres) whilst the smallest virus measures about 25 nanometres. The ultra filtration membranes in the LIFESAVER Ultra-Filtration cartridge have pore sizes of only 15 nanometres, this means that no contamination can pass through into the drinking water.
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The pump creates pressure within the bottle which forces water through the membranes leaving the dirt and contamination on the other side of the membranes.

Here’s a 10-minute video with Michael Pritchard from TED.com (filmed during the most recent TED Global last July 2009):

Shorter demo video from the BBC here:

More info on the Lifesaver website, where donations for Typhoon Ondoy (Ketsana) victims are also accepted.

Behind The Clean Water Project are two Pinays: Tish Vallés, a strategic planner, advocate and social entrepreneur based in New York, and Denise Celdran, an artist, environmentalist and advocate.  They say that the British manufacturer has “kindly offered a 35% discount on the bottles for relief efforts. For the $100.00 each Lifesaver bottle costs, we will help provide from 4,000 – 6,000 liters of safe drinking water. That is from $0.016 – $0.25 per liter!”

Although help is welcome from all aspects,

We are also very collaborative, and welcome like-minded action-oriented groups and individuals to participate in this project. Please email  tish@strategicstiletto.com to start a discussion.

the urgent need is funding, which can be done through paypal, cash or cheque donations. Visit the donation page or email cleanwaterfund@gmail.com for arrangements.

Found through Panjee Tapales (thanks!), who says that the Lifesaver jerrycans, which can “process up to 20,000 litres of clean sterile drinking water without the aid of chemicals,” are also coming in December!

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Let’s spread the word and help getting this initiative going!

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MIT course on Hurricane Katrina

Education Sustainable Living

Stumbled upon a great treasure chest the other day: Open courseware of MIT lectures FOR FREE!!! Imagine having access to some of the best and most innovative classes on anything from Aeronautics and Astronautics to Architecture to Civil and Environmental Engineering!

Here’s one that might be of use to us in the rebuilding efforts post-Ondoy and Pepeng: Katrina Practicum (Spring 2006), a course offered by the Urban Studies and Planning department.

Course description says:

In the wake of Katrina the entire gulf coast is embroiled in a struggle over what constitutes “appropriate” rebuilding and redevelopment efforts. This practicum will engage students in a set of work groups designed to assist local community based institutions and people in shaping the policy and practices that will guide the redevelopment and rebuilding efforts in the city of New Orleans.

View lecture notes, course syllabus, and other materials here.

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make sure everyone you know has seen “home”

Sustainable Living


Video above shows the 3-minute trailer.  Watch the full film here.

In 200,000 years on Earth, humanity has upset the balance of the planet, established by nearly four billion years of evolution. The price to pay is high, but it’s too late to be a pessimist: humanity has barely ten years to reverse the trend, become aware of the full extent of its spoliation of the Earth’s riches and change its patterns of consumption.

“Home” is a quiet documentary on the state of the Earth, with aerial shots of mountains, forests, cities, farmlands filmed by French photographer Yann Arthus-Bertrand.  Beautiful vistas, worth a look even for just the visual treat. It has been translated into 20 languages and was released simultaneously in cinemas, on television, on DVD and on Internet in over 50 countries around the globe on June 5th 2009 the World Environment Day.  The English version is narrated by Glenn Close.

I hailed this movie to family and friends as “life-changing”.  Sat through it twice in one weekend (first time alone, the second with my parents), only to sit through it again the following weekend to make sure my brothers watched it until the end (the last few minutes are critical!).  I’ve given copies to friends and our office staff–and I will keep urging people to watch it until the message comes across:  Our earth is dying.  We can’t sit idly and worry about our own concerns anymore.  Each of our spheres of influence has gotten wider–whether by our choice or not–and to maintain that climate change is a hoax or that it won’t affect us is to lie to ourselves.

The film is a tribute to our earth–it’s non-alarmist and doesn’t end with doomsday themes to make us paralyzed with depression or fear.  It gives us hope, but does so with urgency: we must do our part.

Director Arthus-Bertrand insists that the movie remain free, and his team has created so much material for educators to use with it. Wrote more about the project in have you seen “home”?

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Climate change update from UNEP as of Sept24,2009

Sustainable Living

This new report from the United Nation Environment Progamme says the impacts of climate change are coming faster and sooner, making it all the more urgent for governments to address climate change issues NOW.

…the newly emerging science points to some events thought likely to occur in longer-term time horizons, as already happening or set to happen far sooner than had previously been thought.

Pressing concerns include “ocean acidification linked with the absorption of carbon dioxide in seawater and the impact on shellfish and coral reefs” (happening decades earlier than existing models predict, and melting glaciers, ice-sheets and the Polar Regions (example: the Greenland ice sheet is melting 60 percent higher than the previous record of 1998), which can cause sea levels to rise by up to two metres by 2100 and five to ten times that over following centuries. The report says “thresholds or tipping points may now be reached in a matter of years or a few decades including dramatic changes to the Indian sub-continent’s monsoon, the Sahara and West Africa monsoons, and climate systems affecting a critical ecosystem like the Amazon rainforest.”

Damaging and irreversible impacts as a result of the greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere include:
Losses of tropical and temperate mountain glaciers affecting perhaps 20 percent to 25 percent of the human population in terms of drinking water, irrigation and hydro-power.
– Shifts in the hydrological cycle resulting in the disappearance of regional climates with related losses of ecosystems, species and the spread of drylands northwards and southwards away from the equator.

The good news is there is hope:

Recent science suggests that it may still be possible to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. However, this will only happen if there is immediate, cohesive and decisive action to both cut emissions and assist vulnerable countries adapt.

United Nations Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon, says: “This Climate Change Science Compendium is a wake-up call. The time for hesitation is over. We need the world to realize, once and for all, that the time to act is now and we must work together to address this monumental challenge. This is the moral challenge of our generation.

See Impacts of Climate Change coming faster and sooner: New science report underlines urgency for governments to seal the deal in Copenhagen. Click here for the full UNEP report.

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Climate change awareness: do your part

Sustainable Living

Global environmental expert Nicky Perlas recently appeared on ANC to talk about Climate Change and Typhoon Ondoy.  He confirmed one thing most of us already knew to be true but hoped against: that Super Typhoon Ondoy is just the first of many.  Global warming is upon us, and now is not the time to be in self-denial and dillydally.

What can we do?
 
Here’s a great suggestion from Roy Cabonegro, Sec-Gen of the Partido Kalikasan Metro Manila:

Each of us has communities. Many of these were affected by the flooding.

The flooding is both induced by climate change and because of our lack of preparedness as communities for necessary adaptation measures for more of this that is now inevitable due to the ill effects of climate change and our bad governance.

In each of our barangays, town/cities, province and region, as we become more organized and link together, citizens must claim our right for appropriate immediate and long term plans, programs and actions for climate change adaptation. Such adaptation measures must be specific to each community and sufficiently financed.

Let us do that now. Let us involve ourselves in direct governance now!

Those who live in Paranaque, Las Pinas, City of Manila, Pateros, Taguig, Pasig, Makati, Caloocan, Malabon, Navotas, Valenzuela, Quezon City, Marikina, Antipolo, Tanay, San Mateo, Montalban– we are mobilizing local PK MM chapters in these areas now to engage our LGUs (barangay up) to work on this. We need to work together on this.

Contact us (roy@partidokalikasan.org)

Thanks

Roy Cabonegro
Sec-Gen, Partido Kalikasan Metro Manila


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the secret is to empower people – Nick Perlas

Life in Nuvali Philippines,

Amazing that while transcribing videos of Nicanor Perlas (global environmentalist and 2010 Presidential aspirant), I came upon one video that had him talking exactly about SMALL FARMER PRODUCTIVITY.

This was just a few days after I chanced upon an article by Jeffrey Sachs in which he says that the world’s top 8 countries (the G8) agreed to give $20B to help small farmers increase productivity.  Seems like a normal aid activity, but Sachs stresses that this “is a potentially historic breakthrough in the fight against hunger and extreme poverty,” adding that combined with other initiatives, it “could be the greatest step so far toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals… to reduce extreme poverty, disease, and hunger by half by 2015.

Empowering small farmers to solve world hunger and poverty.  Such a simple idea.  Could this be it? A real answer that is doable NOW?

How does this translate locally in any case?

Nicky Perlas in the video below briefly shares real, applicable solutions to agricultural productivity that have come from 40 years of working with farmers.  He studied, lived, and breathed agriculture–it is his great love.  And the best part is he presents them as a man who’s actually running for the highest office of the land.  Imagine having a president who understands, and one who understands really, and from the ground (he experienced it, still experiences it), that to help is to empower.

Nicky Perlas is the real deal. And this vision of empowering everyone, of including everyone is seen in every aspect of his candidacy– from his platform, to his dialogues with individuals and groups (from the grassroots to the national and even the global levels), and even to his manner of relating to his volunteers.  His slogan says it all–Tayong lahat Perlas.  The solution is in empowering EVERYONE.

Email me or visit nicanorperlas.com if you’d like to help empower others, and in the process empower yourself! \":)\"

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Watch all videos of Nicky Perlas during the Mindanao forum held in Davao City last August 27, 2009 here. I included transcriptions of each video/issue for easier viewing. Issues discussed as follows:

1. Six Pillars of his Platform
2. Leadership for Mindanao
3. Economic Development and the Environment
4. Farm Land Conversion and Low Agricultural Productivity
5. Agriculture and Food Security
6. Philippine Education
7. Not Being Corrupt When Elected into Office
8. Indigenous Peoples Act of 1997
9. Indigenous Peoples Education
10. Business Investments in Mindanao
11. Future of the Youth in Mindanao
12. Bangsamoro Juridical Entity
13. Laws to Protect the Environment
14. Three Women’s Rights to Protect and Promote
15. On Another Woman to Become President
16. Peace Agreement with the MILF

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jeffrey sachs on supporting small farmers

Farming and Gardening

A few weeks ago I watched a five-part BBC docu , How Art Shaped the World, which traced the roots of major themes of our modern lives—fascination with the female nude, death, exaggerated beauty—to traditions of the past that found expression in pottery, sculpture, images.

Found myself wondering why these ancient greats– Mesopotamia, Spain, Mexico, Portugal, Egypt– fell short of their promise and have become economic laggards today..  Is it a necessary to go up only to go down again? Egypt, for example, scaled the heights of power and conquest, and now, they’re among the world’s poorest.  My mom went there in 2008 and went home saying the cars on the streets of Cairo were jalopies, worse than in Manila.

 Jon told me to read Jeffrey Sachs’s “The End of Poverty” to understand why the rich countries are rich, and the poor countries poor. Great especially for non-economists.  And it has a foreword by Bono. \";)\"

Have yet to get a copy of that book, but today I came across Jeffrey Sachs in goodplanet.info, where he makes a case for small farmers and why aid should focus on them: “The G-8’s $20 billion initiative on smallholder agriculture, launched at the group’s recent summit in L’Aquila, Italy, is a potentially historic breakthrough in the fight against hunger and extreme poverty,” adding that combined with other initiatives, it “could be the greatest step so far toward achieving the Millennium Development Goals… to reduce extreme poverty, disease, and hunger by half by 2015.”

Sachs defines “smallholder farmers” as peasant families that work on farms one hectare (10,000 sqm or 2.5 acres) or less in size. To put that into context, Serendra in the Fort is 12.5 hectares in size, equivalent to 12.5 farm households.

It’s not rare to hear someone say that the poor should just stay home or go back to the provinces and plant in their fields—at least they’ll have something to eat and won’t go hungry. Is the solution really as simple as this? Sachs says that:

[Smallholder farmers] are some of the poorest households in the world, and, ironically, some of the hungriest as well, despite being food producers…They are hungry because they lack the ability to buy high-yield seeds, fertilizer, irrigation equipment, and other tools needed to increase productivity. As a result, their output is meager and insufficient for their subsistence. Their poverty causes low farm productivity, and low farm productivity reinforces their poverty. It’s a vicious circle, technically known as a poverty trap.

Getting seed and fertilizer to smallholder farmers at highly subsidized prices (or even free in some cases) will make a lasting difference. Not only will food yields rise in the short term, but farm households will use their higher incomes and better health to accumulate all sorts of assets: cash balances, soil nutrients, farm animals, and their children’s health and education.

That boost in assets will, in turn, enable local credit markets, such as micro-finance, to begin operating. Farmers will be able to buy inputs, either out of their own cash, or by borrowing against their improved creditworthiness.

How serious is this new insight? How relevant is it to us Pinoys, who have so much arable land but so much poor?

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Have you seen “Home”?

Sustainable Living

Made my family watch “Home” over the weekend.  It’s a quiet documentary on the state of the Earth, with aerial shots of mountains, forests, cities, farmlands filmed by French photographer Yann Arthus-Bertrand.  Beautiful vistas, worth a look even for just the visual treat. It has been translated into 20 languages and was released simultaneously in cinemas, on television, on DVD and on Internet in over 50 countries around the globe on June 5th 2009 the World Environment Day.  The English version is narrated by Glenn Close.  Watch it on youtube.

Arthus-Bertrand says on the Home Project site:

We are living in exceptional times. Scientists tell us that we have 10 years to change the way we live, avert the depletion of natural resources and the catastrophic evolution of the Earth’s climate. The stakes are high for us and our children. Everyone should take part in the effort, and HOME has been conceived to take a message of mobilization out to every human being. For this purpose, HOME needs to be free. A patron, the PPR Group, made this possible. EuropaCorp, the distributor, also pledged not to make any profit because Home is a non-profit film. HOME has been made for you : share it! And act for the planet.

I’ve seen it three times now, still has the same effect- a paring down of wants,a push for a frugal, efficient lifestyle that’s more and more local-minded but inclusive of the greater world out there.   “Home” is a multimedia platform pushing a green advocacy: Our Earth is dying. It’s too late to be a pessimist. Bertrand shares on goodplanet.org:

Since 1990 I have flown over one hundred countries around the world. Extraordinary aerial views of nature and descriptive texts invite all of us to reflect upon the our planet’s evolution and its inhabitants’ future.

Can you imagine… ? In just 50 years mankind has modified Planet Earth’s environment faster than in the whole history of humanity ! As Earth’s ecosystem worsens, nature is expressing its violent anger : fresh water, oceans, forests, air, climate, arable land are all diminishing drastically.

Just today I actually did as the movie suggested and visited goodplanet.org, which is an umbrella site for all of Bertrand’s initiatives (ang dami!!!), but was frustrated that most of the content I was looking for was in French.  Kept clicking away and found his main site yannarthusbertrand.org, which has more navigable content for English speakers, including downloadable wallpapers of aerial shots in 100 countries (Philippines included!).

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Image shows the Village of Bacolor under a layer of mud, the island of Luzon, Philippines (14°59’ N, 120°39’ E) after the Pinatubo eruption:

In 1991 the volcano of Pinatubo, on the island of Luzon in the Philippines, began to erupt after nearly six centuries of dormancy, projecting a 66-million-cubic-foot (18-million-cubic-meter) cloud of sulfurous gas and ash to a height of 115,000 feet (35,000 m) and destroying all life within a radius of 9 miles (14 km). In the days that followed, torrential rains from a hurricane mixed with ashes scattered over several thousand kilometers, causing devastating mudflows, which engulfed whole villages. Before the cataclysmic eruption on June 15, 1991, the evacuation of 60,000 people limited casualties to 875 dead and 1 million injured. Close to 600 million inhabitants of our planet live under the threat of volcanoes, but despite their force, volcanic eruptions are not the deadliest threat to humans. In the past fifteen years, 560,000 persons perished from major natural catastrophes (120,000 in 1998 and 1999 alone); 15 percent of the deaths were due to storms, 30 percent to earthquakes, and half to floods—a natural phenomenon that has become even more devastating as a result of human intervention in the environment.

More aerial shots of the Philippines here.

Another gem I came across: an actual teaching guide for use with the film!  A free, downloadable DVD includes the 90min version of the film and other tools to help “pass on the torch”:

…created for teachers and youth workers to help them decipher the movie with children and teenagers and educate them on the environmental side of the film as well as the artistic side.
The tools were conceived as guidelines for the audience to approach the film in a progressive way and educational sheets refer to key scenes of the film. Using the film as a starting point, it is therefore possible for children over 9 years old to tackle a citizen debate or study geographical, historical, philosophical, scientific, literary or musical matters in groups.

The Home-education DVD is available for free from www.milan-enseignants.com/home
It can also be viewed and downloaded from www.home-educ.org

Made for free distribution all over the world, teaching aids for educators who want to use the film in the classroom are available in multiple languages in home-educ.org. A printable English PDF is also available (2.4mb), well-worth the download–exhaustive with actual lesson plan suggestions, breakdown of sequences, etc.  Such an amazing and generous treasure chest of information!!

Would be great for every school (and family!) in the Philippines to have this.

More on concrete steps towards a low-impact Pinoy lifestyle later.

For more info, visit:
Goodplanet.org (in English)
Goodplanet.info (in English)
Goodplanet facebook group

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Agrarian Reform

Farming and Gardening

First part written on February 29, 2008:

Yesterday I sat through two talks on Agrarian Reform. I was depressed the whole day. Heard two other classmates– a French and American– getting all riled up over the issue: they were so upset, to the point of rage even.

  • Many peasant revolts in history were triggered not by ideology but by claims on land
  • 30M hectares total land area in the Philippines, 10.1M hectares classified as agricultural land (used for farming)
  • Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Program was drafted to distribute agri land to farmers
  • A heavily-edited CARP was passed under Cory’s term, with glaring (i.e. self-serving) conditions: applicable to rice and cornfields only
  • From the time of the prayle until today, who has made up government? Landowners
  • Landowners will protect their own
  • CARP, although flawed to begin with, has had gains–improved lives, etc.
  • But with no SUPPORT SERVICES for the beneficiaries (ex. credit line), it’s been very frustrating for all– the farmers, advocates of CARP, landowners
  • The Ramos administration has distributed the most land so far, but it was also FVR’s Philippines 2000 campaign that rezoned most of the covered agri lands to industrial/residential/tourism lands, making them exempted from CARP
  • Come June 2008, Congress will have to decide whether to extend CARP for another 10 years
    • landowners will vote no
    • leftists will vote no– in favor of a complete overhaul of the program (ex. immediate confiscation of land)
  • Should we be pushing for a YES?
    • Is land redistribution really the answer?
    • Agrarian reform programs in Japan, Taiwan, Korea worked. Common denominators?
      • they were swiftly implemented (under 3 years) vs. the Philippine program: it’s been 20 years and we’re still at it
      • done under an authoritarian regime vs. the Philippine way: democracy –there are too many people to please!
    • We had a real shot at it under Cory’s revolutionary government, but well, what great surprise, no real CARP happened, and her family’s Hacienda Luisita got a safe spot on the exemption list

Update (March 31, 2008):
I went to Bicol over Holy Week, where as a child I remember my parents would point to ricefields along the road and say, “Your lolo lost that land to land reform” or “Your tito‘s dad had a heart attack when government took that property.”

When I sat through those talks on land reform last Feb., I felt not just sad, but slightly defensive– landowners aren’t that bad. They couldn’t be. We’re also landowners (although our landholdings are relatively puny). And I have friends who are also landed, and their families aren’t evil.

From the talks, I also got the impression that real estate developers were the “bad guys” in the land reform issue. But being in a family engaged in real estate, I grew up with a bit more compassion for developers than my peers. As my dad always says in frustration, in the Philippines, it’s the private sector that often initiates development. Government won’t go out of its way to single out a piece of rawland, build roads and provisions for utilities, and then invite private groups to “develop” it for public consumption (ex. transform it into a business or residential district). It works the other way around. Add to that the red tape and bad business practices that are sure to turn off any lukewarm investor. Bottomline, you have to hand it to developers, or to some of them at least.

Is land reform an economic problem or is it also a morality issue? At the end of the talk, a friend and I talked about what we thought was the end goal of land reform and what motivated its advocates, and decided for ourselves that more than anything, it’s justice that they’re fighting for. Equitable distribution of wealth. Principle first (quite possibly because it’s their only recourse), practicality later.

Mixing morals with economics? Hmmm… I just attended a lecture by Prof. Randy David and Nicanor Perlas on “Transforming a Damaged Culture” last Friday, March 28, where it was brought up that the path to modernity is in NOT MIXING the different spheres in society… more on that later.

My take on it: I’m not making big claims on the land reform issue, especially after just two informal lectures on it, but I don’t think I can push for land reform if there are no real solutions to making it economically viable for farmer beneficiaries. What will they do with land they own but have no means of exploiting? Not to say that I’m all for idle lands in the hands of the elite. In an ideal setting, motto would be “Basta everybody happy.” This land problem involves matters outside of our individual capacities to address and is perhaps one issue (of many) that really does require the role of government as an authoritative institution to mediate or be the main actor (meaning it’s not just up to civil society or NGOs to make changes).

As individual Pinoys, can we also contribute something concrete? Is it enough to say “I’m minding my own business and I’m not stepping on anyone’s toes”? Small positive steps would perhaps be to be more scrupulous in our real estate investments. Do background checks, hold landowners accountable for how they exploit their lands… Also spread the word, open eyes and pay attention to what’s happening.

Looking at that list again makes me think that yes, these are good, “noble” things that one does when the sun shines. Meaning on a good day. One can think outside of the self and actually sincerely pro-actively reach out his hand.

What’s an everyday thing we can do, and do NOW? We are entitled (and actually obligated) to grow our assets, which include land/property among other great things like talent, relationships, etc. It’s in having wealth that we are able to share it and help others. Focus should be on wealth creation, which does cover wealth of mind, body and dignity. Just think better, all the time. Instead of “There’s so much poverty in the Philippines”, we can greet our mornings with ” What can I do today that will add to the richness already around me?” We can’t ignore that problems exist, but we don’t have to be sucked dry from feeling depressed over them. Again, make room for or spend energies only on creative ideas, everyday. (I’ve been reading “The Secret” again, you should too \":P\" )

Related:
Real estate and land reform – short post about which Philippine developer I’m betting on

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